Fuel tax fraud costs Portuguese State more than €1.1 billion
Study by EPCOL with Deloitte support points to mounting fiscal losses since 2021. Carousel schemes with fuel imported from Spain dominate the fraud.
Undeclared fuel equivalent to one in every four lorries from Spain
More than 17,000 tanker lorries transporting over 500 million litres of undeclared fuel annually. This is the scale of tax fraud in Portugal's fuel market, according to a market study commissioned by EPCOL — Empresas Portuguesas de Combustíveis e Lubrificantes — with technical support from consultancy Deloitte, released this Wednesday and reported by acp.pt.
The volume of undeclared imported fuel is equivalent to what is transported by one in every four lorries crossing the land border from Spain — which EPCOL classifies as "a relevant operational dimension with measurable impact on the sector's logistics".
Estimated losses of €1,121 million between 2023 and 2025
The study covers the period from 2023 to 2025 and estimates average fiscal losses of over one billion euros annually: 1,121 million euros, of which 704 million correspond to ISP (tax on petroleum products) and 417 million to VAT. Over the same period, the volume of undeclared fuel worsened by 45% and lost tax revenue increased by 71%.
In 2024 alone, losses from uncollected taxes reached 460 million euros — more than 70% of the total value of fuel price support measures granted throughout 2025 via petroleum tax relief. According to the Budgetary Technical Support Unit (UTAO), this fiscal support cost the State 600 million euros.
Tightening of rules in Spain accelerated tax evasion in Portugal
Tax evasion intensified after 2024, when Spain tightened mechanisms for controlling fiscal settlement, starting to require bank and/or financial guarantees. Regulatory pressure from the Spanish side shifted fraud to Portugal, where VAT was the tax that experienced the largest surge in 2025, according to sector operators contacted by Observador.
At issue are carousel-type schemes, based on the creation of intermediary companies that purchase fuel in Spain under fiscal warehouse arrangements. The transaction is carried out without immediate VAT payment, exploiting a legal window of deferred settlement that some operators exploit fraudulently.
EPCOL's secretary-general, António Comprido, identified between 10 and 15 smaller operators involved — some originating from Spain and known to Portuguese authorities. Comprido also warned that these agents may already be analysing potential legal loopholes in the new legislative package approved by the Government.
Government approves measures, but implementation still depends on Parliament
The Portuguese Government received the study's conclusions and two weeks ago approved proposals for revising VAT and ISP codes. The amendments still have to be debated and approved in Parliament — which, according to available information, should not happen before MPs enter their holiday period.
Among the measures envisaged is the reversal of the VAT liable person (reverse charge mechanism) throughout the entire fuel supply chain to the final operator. With this change, the obligation to settle VAT passes from the supplier to the purchaser, eliminating the risk of deductions based on VAT that never reached the State.
Retailers will also be required to present a bank guarantee of three million euros as a condition of certification. In case of non-compliance with legal obligations, this security can be activated. Operators may also lose certification through false declarations or non-compliance with tax obligations, becoming prohibited from resuming activity for five years — a prohibition that also extends to their respective administrators and managers.
Under VAT, the bill also provides for the mandatory monthly declaration regime, a measure aimed at facilitating information cross-checking and early detection of fraudulent schemes.
Warnings since 2018 without immediate response
António Comprido praised the Government's initiative, which he classifies as the only one to adopt measures since the first warnings issued in 2018. Nevertheless, he acknowledged that the interval between approval and implementation of the new rules represents "a window of opportunity" that non-compliers will seek to exploit.
The study also identified smaller losses associated with non-compliance with strategic reserves and failure to incorporate the legal level of biofuels, although these have remained stable — unlike actual tax fraud, which continues on an upward trajectory.
In presenting the conclusions, Comprido estimated that non-compliance in the sector represents between 2% and 4% of Portugal's total fuel market.
Source: Google News PT — Crime (pt)