Homicide reduction in Ecuador is illusory: 81 cantons register more deaths in 2026
Ecuador accumulated 5,676 homicides between January and August 2026, 6.4 per cent fewer than in 2025, but the decline is explained almost exclusively by Guayaquil and Durán. In 81 cantons violence increased.
Guayaquil and Durán conceal a dispersal of violence across the rest of the country
Ecuador registered 5,676 intentional homicides between January and August 2026, compared with 6,067 in the same period in 2025, according to official data reported by primicias.ec. The difference of 391 fewer murders represents a decline of 6.4 per cent. Despite this, the country consolidates itself as the second most violent in its history.
This reduction, however, does not reflect widespread pacification. The figures conceal a phenomenon of relocation of crime: whilst some cities drastically lowered their statistics, in 81 cantons violent deaths increased compared to 2025, historically considered the deadliest year in the country.
The statistical weight of two cities
The explanation for the national decline resides almost entirely in Guayaquil and Durán, two cities in Guayas province that have been the epicentre of violence in recent years.
Guayaquil went from 1,808 homicides in the first eight months of 2025 to 1,482 in the same period of 2026: 326 fewer victims, a reduction of 18 per cent. Durán recorded an even more pronounced decline, falling from 390 to 227 cases, that is, 163 fewer deaths and a drop of 41.8 per cent.
Combined, both cities accumulated 489 fewer homicides. When comparing that figure with the total national reduction of 391 cases, the result is striking: without Guayaquil and Durán in the calculation, the other 221 cantons in the country registered 98 more murders than in 2025.
El Oro, new national epicentre
The most severe increase concentrated in El Oro province, on the southern border with Peru. Its capital, Machala, heads the national list of increases in absolute terms: it went from 207 to 367 homicides between January and August, equivalent to 160 additional violent deaths in eight months.
Five other cantons in El Oro rank among the ten most affected in the country:
- Huaquillas: from 61 to 93 homicides (+32)
- Pasaje: from 48 to 91 deaths (+43)
- Santa Rosa: from 52 to 87 cases (+35)
- Arenillas: from 20 to 57 homicides (+37)
- El Guabo: from 50 to 78 deaths (+28)
Overall, El Oro province registered 788 intentional homicides compared with 445 in the same period in 2025, an increase of 343 deaths that made it the new epicentre of violence in Ecuador.
Violence spreads to the Coast and the Amazon
The dispersal of crime also struck other coastal and Amazonian provinces. In Manabí, the canton of Montecristi escalated from 63 to 107 homicides, an increase of 44 cases, whilst San Vicente rose from nine to 32 deaths, 23 more cases. Manabí province closed the period with 839 homicides in total.
In the Amazon, Lago Agrio, capital of Sucumbíos, registered a jump from 33 to 76 deaths, 43 additional homicides. Sucumbíos province overall rose from 84 to 100 cases.
In Los Ríos, the cantons of Vinces and Ventanas recorded notable deteriorations: 27 and 24 additional homicides, respectively.
Santa Elena, on the Coast, tallied 169 violent deaths compared with 142 in 2025.
Ten provinces with more deaths than in 2025
Of the country's 24 provinces, ten closed the first eight months of 2026 with figures higher than 2025. El Oro leads that group with a difference of 343 homicides, followed by Santa Elena (+27), Sucumbíos (+16) and Azuay, which went from 18 to 33 cases.
In the Highlands, increases were marginal but present. Azuay and Carchi, which rose from nine to ten homicides, are the only examples of increases in that region. Napo escalated from 11 to 20 cases; Esmeraldas, from 221 to 228; and Pastaza and Morona Santiago closed with 12 and 15 homicides, respectively.
Crime is relocated, not disappearing
Official data cited by primicias.ec shows that the 6.4 per cent reduction in the national rate does not respond to a structural weakening of organised crime. Violence shifted from its historical focal points in Guayaquil and Durán towards new territories, in particular towards the southern border, coastal zones and the Amazon.
With 5,676 homicides in eight months, Ecuador moves towards a second consecutive year among the most violent in its history, although below the record set in 2025.
Source: Google News EC — Guayaquil